The Trump Impeachment Inquiry

Are you confused by what’s going on with the impeachment inquiry? The Omniscient’s Ella Sullivan has you covered.  Below is a detailed, up-to-date timeline of the significant happenings thus far, the steps of impeachment as dictated by the U.S. Constitution, and predictions for what’s to come.

Trump Impeachment Timeline

April 2014– Hunter Biden takes a position for a Ukranian natural gas company. The owner, Mykola Zlocevsky, was under investigation by the British government for corruption claims and was criticized by Geoffrey Pyatt, US Ambassador to Ukraine in 2014. No wrongdoing was ever proven of Zlochevsky.

August 21, 2018– Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, is found guilty of hiding foreign bank accounts and committing bank and tax fraud. From 2010 to 2014 Manafort collect $65 million in foreign bank accounts. Manafort also lied to banks after his Ukranian political work finished in 2015 so he could take out over $20 million in loans.

April 1, 2019– Ukraine Prosecutor General, Yuriy Lutsenko, accused Joe Biden of pressuring Ukranian President, Petro Poroshenko, to fire the Ukranian Prosecutor General, Viktor Sokin. This was supposedly due to Shokin’s criminal probe involving Hunter Biden. However, Joe Biden, the European Union, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers, and Ukranian activists all supported Shoin being fired for refusing to prosecute corruption. Later, Lutsenko went back on previous comments and said Hunter Biden did not violate any Ukranian laws.

June 12, 2019– Donald Trump says in an interview with ABC News that he would be open to hearing negative information about 2020 presidential candidates from foreign governments.

July 25, 2019– Trump and Zelensky speak over the phone. Trump asked for Zelensky to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden.

July 26, 2019– US Special Envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, and US Ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland, meet with Zelensky. According to the whistleblower complaint, they told Zelensky and Ukraine government leadership on how to approach Trump’s request regarding Joe and Hunter Biden.

August 12, 2019– A whistleblower submits a complaint to the Intelligence Community Inspector General, Michael Atkinson.

August 2019– Representatives on Capitol Hill criticize Trump for blocking military aid to Ukraine. It is later reported Trump originally created the hold on aid a week before his phone call with Zelensky in July.

September 9, 2019– House Intelligence Chairman, Adam Schiff, is notified of an urgent concern by Atkinson. The Director of National Intelligence, Joseph Maguire, had previously overruled the concern.

September 9, 2019– Investigations on the attempts by Trump and Rudy Guiliani, Trump’s lawyer, to pressure the Ukrainian government by three separate House committees. The committees request information about Trump’s phone call with Zelensky.

September 18, 2019– It is reported that the whistleblower complaint involves Trump communicating with a foreign later relating to a promise.

September 19, 2019– It is reported the whistleblower complaint has to do with Ukraine. 

September 22, 2019– Trump admits to discussing Joe Biden with Zelensky during a phone call.

September 24, 2019– A formal impeachment inquiry of Trump is announced by House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi.

September 25, 2019– The transcript of the phone call between Trump and Zelensky is released by the White House.

September 26, 2019– Maguire defends his decision to not tell Congress about the whistleblower complaint and he defends the whistleblower.

September 26, 2019– Whistleblower complaint is released to the public.

September 27, 2019– A majority of House members support Trump’s impeachment.

October 1, 2019– Trump claims the impeachment inquiry is a coup, the sudden and illegal seizure of power. Trump also requests an interview with the whistleblower.

October 2, 2019– US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, says he was also on the Zelensky and Trump phone call. Pompeo also says the phone call represents US policy to Ukraine.

October 3, 2019– While talking to reporters at the White House, Trump asks China and Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden.

October 6, 2019– The attorneys for the whistleblower say they are representing multiple officials relating to the complaint. This may mean additional people have given evidence.

October 8, 2019– The White House announces it will not comply with the impeachment inquiry because it sees the inquiry as illegal. Sondland is blocked by the State Department from testifying before the House committees.

The Steps of Impeachment and Potential Results

1. The House committees submit reports to the House Judiciary Committee.

•  Insufficient evidence of wrongdoing is found and Trump remains in office. 
• Sufficient evidence of wrongdoing is found and the House votes on articles of impeachment. 

2. The House votes on the articles of impeachment. 

• A minority supports impeachment and Trump stays in office. 
• A simple majority of 51% support impeachment and Trump is impeached. Then the Senate votes about convicting Trump. Trump could still run for re-election if only impeached by the House.

3. The Senate votes on convicting Trump. 

• Less than two-thirds of the Senate supports convicting Trump and Trump remains in office.
•  Over two-thirds or 67% of the Senate votes to convict Trump and Trump is removed from office. Vice President Mike Pence takes over. However, even if Trump is removed from office, he could still run for re-election depending on the technicalities provided by the Senate conviction.

What is Predicted to Happen?

     The House has a democratic majority, so political analysts predict the House will support impeaching Trump if sufficient evidence of wrongdoing is found. 

     “Just because Trump is president doesn’t mean he is above our laws,” said Northwood junior Shane Chubb. “If he does something illegal, he should be impeached. This is not an issue of party loyalty but of human decency.” 

     However, political analysts believe that the Senate will not convict Trump due to the Republican majority in the Senate. The best option for Trump is avoiding being found guilty with evidence by the House committees. But if the House ends up impeaching Trump, the best option will be avoiding being convicted in the Senate. Being convicted by the Senate would be worse for Trump because it would mean a substantial amount of Republican Senators found him guilty. This would also be bad for his re-election campaign because the Republican Senators would likely revoke their support of Trump’s run. This would make Trump’s re-election more difficult because of less support from his own party.