President Donald Trump is just one Republican figure who has been infected by coronavirus in a cluster whose size is currently unknown. Other prominent figures who have been infected from the same cluster include Stephen Miller, First Lady Melania Trump and Senator for North Carolina Thom Tillis. The president was first diagnosed on Oct. 1, after it was found that Hope Hicks, a senior counselor to the president, tested positive. The virus is believed to have spread to the rest of the president’s circle after an event at the Rose Garden in celebration of the nomination of Amy Coney Barret.
Although President Trump recently left the hospital, there is still a chance that he could take a turn for the worse. Although it’s unlikely, Trump’s diagnosis has left some wondering, what would happen if Trump were to die in office? The short answer is Vice President Pence would take control and become president. But what would happen to Trump’s presidential campaign? We turned to Northwood’s own AP Government Teacher, Mr. Skip Thibault, to find out how the campaign would proceed if Trump were to die.
“It’s important if [he dies] before or after the election. It’s complicated if he dies now,” Thibault said. “Remember, the parties are private organizations and they pick their candidates. There is nothing in the constitution about the Republican Party, or the Democratic Party. […] It seems obvious that the Republican Party would make Pence their choice, but it’s up to them. They could pick somebody else.[…] If [Trump] died before the election, it would be chaos; it’d be nuts.”
There have also been 11 cases linked back to the First Presidential Debate in Cleveland, Ohio. Joe Biden, Trump’s opposition, has tested negative; but, considering that Trump tested positive for the virus since sharing a stage with his opponent, what if Biden had tested positive and died? If Biden were to die before the election, then the Democratic Party would simply select a new candidate, likely Kamala Harris, the current vice-presidential candidate. But if he were to win the election, and then die, things could get weird.
“He hasn’t even been declared president-elect at that point [immediately after the election],” Thibault said. “The Electoral College doesn’t cast their votes until Nov. 14, and they’re not counted until January with the new Congress. So [Biden] wouldn’t officially become president-elect until January. There is a period of time where he is not president-elect. If he was president-elect [and died], Kamala Harris would simply assume the role.”
If either of the candidates die before the election, another problem could arise: how to determine the result of the race.
“The problem with [the hypothetical deaths of Trump or Biden]is that people are already voting,” Thibault said. “People all over have started sending in their absentee and mail-in ballots. So if one of the candidates is gone, and someone else is on that ticket, well, it’s never happened before. I think this is one case where the electoral college might bail us out, because you’re voting for the people to pick the president, not the president themself. In theory, they should have loyalty to the Republican Party, not Trump.”
North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis was one of those infected by the Rose Garden coronavirus cluster. Tillis is likely going to live, but assuming he doesn’t, what happens to Tillis’ seat?
“If a Senator dies, then the governor gets to appoint a replacement,” Thibault said. “[North Carolina Governor] Cooper would get to pick someone to replace [Tillis.] That’s the way it works.”
Trump is not only one of the most visible people in the country; he is also in a tight race. How could coronavirus affect Trump in the election? Could he get sympathy support, or is his support crumbling because of his diagnosis?
“It’s got to hurt him,” Thibault said. “He’s trying to project himself now as Superman, but now he’s [saying] that it’s not a big deal. […] But in the end, it’s killing him. He’s a populist president. He’s the best [at popular appeal] because he doesn’t need [the media], he’s got Twitter. Nobody has ever used social media to the extent he has. It’s a wonderful tool for him to communicate with his people, to get his message out and spin things his way. I think it’s gotta be killing him.”
Polls support the idea that Trump has suffered since his Coronavirus diagnosis, including RealClearPolitics, which shows Biden’s lead increasing from 7 to 10 points in a general election poll. Currently, Biden has 51% support, compared to Trump’s 41%.
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