Co-Editor in Chief Ella Sullivan compares North Carolina’s United States Senate Candidates Thomas “Thom” Tillis and James Calvin “Cal” Cunningham while looking at their background, key beliefs, recent scandals and current polls.
Background
Key Beliefs
Poor Judgment vs. Recent Scandals
Current Polls
Ever since North Carolina’s race for United States Senator took off, I have been intrigued. North Carolina was targeted by the Democratic Party as a potential flip seat in the senate. I consider myself left leaning and was very excited for North Carolina to hopefully have a Democratic senator. Thom Tillis was only seeking his second reelection and Richard Burr seemed like the bigger concern to me in the beginning of the race due to his corrupt stock sale as head of the Intelligence Committee, but I was excited for a replacement nonetheless.
However, I started questioning my opinions on Cunningham after WRAL’s Sept. 14 US Senator Debate. Throughout the debate, Cunningham came across as arrogant with a politician’s smile and refusal to acknowledge wrongdoings pointed out by Tillis. Tillis also came across a little overconfident but only in the moments when he was pushing back against Cunningham’s claims. Then, Tillis announced Oct. 2 he had coronavirus after attending Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination at the White House, and Cunningham confirmed that he had had an extramarital affair.
Tillis’ diagnosis does not surprise me. If you don’t follow health guidelines, you have higher chances of contracting COVID-19. I do not think Tillis’ supporters are going to be turned off by the diagnosis either. According to a study by Pew Research Center on July 25, only 45% of Republicans are very or somewhat concerned about unknowingly spreading the coronavirus, and only 35% of Republicans worry they will contract COVID-19 and need to be hospitalized. This data leads me to believe that Tillis’ diagnosis will not be a big problem for many of his Republican voters.
However, Cunningham’s sex scandal makes it much harder for me to support him. His morals are obviously not the same as mine, as adultery is unacceptable in both my religious practice and personal standards. So, the question is, Is it worth it for me to vote for someone who cheats on their wife just to flip the Senate? I think this question is difficult and will be a question every potential Cunningham voter will have to decide on their own. However, I think looking deeper into each candidate’s background, beliefs, controversies and election chances allows voters to be a little more informed on who their two options are.
Background
Thom Tillis is the incumbent Republican candidate in this election. He was born in Florida and moved around during his childhood at points living in rental houses and trailer parks. After high school, Tillis wanted to attend college but could not afford it, so he enlisted in the Air Force. However, a month before his deployment, he was in a car accident and was released. Tillis then began working. He later ended up going to five different institutions to earn his college degree in over 18 years. In 1998, Tillis moved to North Carolina. From 2003 to 2005, Tillis served as a member of the Cornelius, NC Board of Commissioners. From 2004 to 2014, he served as District 98’s North Carolina House Representative, serving as Speaker of the North Carolina House from 2011 to 2014. His first term as North Carolina Senator in the United States Senate started in 2015.
In my opinion, Tillis’ youth better speaks to North Carolinians. According to the North Carolina Justice Center, 1.4 million North Carolinians lived in poverty in 2019. During Tillis’ childhood, his parents struggled to provide for their family, and Tillis had to work before acquiring enough funds to attend college. From my standpoint, this story is very relatable for many hard working North Carolina families. Obviously, Tillis has also had extensive political experience, which is also attractive for voters who want an experienced representative in the United States Senate. I believe Tillis is at a disadvantage, however, to his opponent in one major respect: he is not a North Carolina native, while Cunningham is.
Cal Cunningham is the Democratic challenger in this election. Cunningham was raised in Lexington, North Carolina and has lived in the state his whole life. He earned his undergraduate and law degrees from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC-CH) after he transferred from Vanderbilt University. He was elected student body president of UNC-CH in 1995. At age 27, Cunningham became the North Carolina Senator for District 23. After 9/11, Cunningham volunteered to join the United States Army Reserve, and he has served three active duty tours since then.
Cunningham’s background is also attractive to many North Carolina voters. Being a North Carolina native is definitely a perk. Cunningham also lived the dream of many North Carolinians when attending UNC-CH. In 2018, the number of military recruits from North Carolina was over six thousand, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. According to Governing, in 2017, North Carolina was ranked fourth in most total active duty and reserve members of the military with 112,951 members.
Key Beliefs
Senator Tillis is committed to “preserving the American Dream,” according to his website. During the 2019-2020 Senate year, Tillis served on four committees including the Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, the Committee on Armed Services, and the Committee on the Judiciary. His work on the Committee of the Judiciary has led to the confirmation of President Trump’s first two Supreme Court nominations. Tillis’ beliefs generally aligned with the platform of the Republican Party. He believes in small government and a free market. He is pro-life and supports lots of commonsense initiatives proposed by other Republicans. Tillis is also a supporter of President Donald Trump.
In all honesty, none of Tillis’ political beliefs align with my own. The “commonsense initiatives” in regards to the economy, healthcare, immigration and border security backed by Tillis are not beneficial to Americans struggling the most. I do not believe in smaller government, and I think that the market should be regulated by the government to a greater extent than conservatives would like. Tillis’ unwavering support for President Trump is also extremely concerning. Tillis’ support of Trump means he stands by Trump’s many problematic decisions that have hurt North Carolinians, like his attack on the Affordable Care Act, which will potentially kick 20 million Americans off of their health care and force more rural hospitals to close down. This attack is especially problematic in states like ours where Medicaid has not been expanded. On the other hand, I do think Tillis’ work in the Senate Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Veterans’ Affairs is beneficial for many service members in North Carolina. There is also no denying that Tillis gets stuff done as he has been key in the confirmation of President Trump’s first two Supreme Court nominations.
Cunningham is a moderate Democrat. He believes he can fix what he calls a “corrupt” Washington. Some of his key priorities are accessible healthcare, gun control, and veterans’ rights. He also supports women’s rights and identifies as pro-choice. His campaign also frequently highlights his support of the LGBTQ+ community.
I support all of Cunningham’s beliefs, but if I could create my perfect candidate, I would make them a little more progressive. Cunningham’s time in the military allows him to relate to the servicemen and women in North Carolina and better understand their needs. His support of the LGBTQ+ community offsets the assumption that the military is unaccepting of members of LGBTQ+ people. During the 2020 election, Democrats targeted Cunningham’s campaign as a potential flip seat. By turning the Senate blue and keeping the House of Representatives blue, liberals would have complete control of the Legislative Branch. This allows Democrats to be placed in the most important committees and allows for progressive bills to get through Congress with more ease. A blue Congress also guarantees pushback on the president if Trump is re-elected. I still strongly believe flipping the Senate blue is important, but I question if Cunningham deserves the position due to his recent scandal.
Poor Judgment and Recent Scandal
On Oct. 2, Senator Tillis announced he had coronavirus after attending Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination at the White House as a member of the Committee on the Judiciary. This event became a coronavirus superspreader and lacked many health protocols. Tillis was wearing a mask while in attendance, but was not social distancing.
In my opinion, Tillis’ actions are irresponsible and show poor judgement. As of Oct. 11, The New York Times reported that there were over 7.7 million reported cases of coronavirus in the United States. It is hypocritical for any politician to be actively preaching health protocols to his constituents while disregarding them personally.
Tonight my COVID-19 test came back positive. I’m following the recommendations of my doctor. Thankfully, I have no symptoms and feel well. COVID is a very contagious virus. If you were exposed or start to display symptoms, please call your doctor, self-isolate, and get tested. pic.twitter.com/fwc826dkvQ
— Senator Thom Tillis (@SenThomTillis) October 3, 2020
Cal Cunningham confirmed in the late evening of Oct. 2 that he had had an extramarital affair with Arlene Guzman Todd, a public relations strategist.
“I have hurt my family, disappointed my friends and am deeply sorry,” said Cunningham. “The first step in repairing those relationships is taking complete responsibility, which I do. I ask that my family’s privacy be respected in this personal matter.”
On Oct. 7, the Army Reserve announced that an investigation had been launched into the scandal. Cunningham is a lieutenant colonel in the Reserve while Todd is married to a service member. The Army Reserve considered adultery as “unacceptable conduct” and stated that it may be “service discrediting.”
If you can lie about cheating on your wife, you can lie about anything. This scandal is extremely upsetting to me and discredits Cunningham’s campaign in my opinion. Lying before you are even in office especially about something like this is unacceptable, and it shows he has no problems with lying. His morals should also be brought into question.
Current Polls
According to FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis website that uses statistical analysis to monitor politics, the race between Tillis and Cunningham is very close and it has been for a while. The Senate race in North Carolina was targeted by Democrats early on as a potential flip seat. Since then, lots of money has been put into this race by both Democrats and Republicans. According to Open Secrets, Tillis’ campaign has raised $13,752,133 and Cunningham’s campaign has raised $14,811,441 as of Sept. 30.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s model of the North Carolina Senate election, Cunningham is favored to win the election in 66 out of 100 possible outcomes compared to Tillis winning 34 out of 100 possible outcomes as of Oct. 14.
Looking closer at FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the North Carolina Senate election allows viewers to see how both Tillis’ and Cunningham’s scandals and poor choices have affected their chances in the polls. FiveThirtyEight’s Oct. 1 forecast showed Cunningham winning in 63 out of 100 possible outcomes compared to Tillis winning in 37 out of 100 possible outcomes.
When news of Tillis’ coronavirus diagnosis broke to the public Oct. 2, Tillis’ chances of winning dropped to 33 out of 100 possible outcomes compared to Cunningham’s chances of winning 67 out of 100 possible outcomes.
On Oct. 3, when North Carolinians awoke to the news of Cunningham’s affair, Cunningham’s chances of winning dropped to 64 out of 100 possible outcomes compared to Tillis’ chances of winning 36 out of 100 possible.
Currently, FiveThirtyEight shows the popular vote margin in this election as 2.5%. This margin shows Cunningham winning with 50.2% of the votes compared to Tillis’ 47.3% of the votes.
Regardless of what the polls are predicting, I am feeling disenchanted with this race. Neither candidate has shown that he aligns with some of the most critical of my political and moral values. I no longer support Cunningham’s campaign as holding a moral standard, which is important to me, but I don’t support Tillis’ campaign either due to his lack of alignment with my politics and his disregard for public health regulations. I am glad I do not have to personally vote in this election, as I am not yet old enough. It will be interesting to see who those North Carolinians that do vote in this election will choose for United States Senator. How will personal morals or views on political policy dictate their decision?
Graphic created by Ella Sullivan with candidate headshots from www.tillis.senate.gov and www.calfornc.com.
